@article {Holdo2009DiseaseMediated,
	title = {A Disease-Mediated Trophic Cascade in the Serengeti and its Implications for Ecosystem C},
	journal = {PLoS Biol},
	volume = {7},
	number = {9},
	year = {2009},
	month = {September},
	pages = {e1000210+},
	publisher = {Public Library of Science},
	abstract = {Tree cover is a fundamental structural characteristic and driver of ecosystem processes in terrestrial ecosystems, and trees are a major global carbon (C) sink. Fire and herbivores have been hypothesized to play dominant roles in regulating trees in African savannas, but the evidence for this is conflicting. Moving up a trophic scale, the factors that regulate fire occurrence and herbivores, such as disease and predation, are poorly understood for any given ecosystem. We used a Bayesian state-space model to show that the wildebeest population irruption that followed disease (rinderpest) eradication in the Serengeti ecosystem of East Africa led to a widespread reduction in the extent of fire and an ongoing recovery of the tree population. This supports the hypothesis that disease has played a key role in the regulation of this ecosystem. We then link our state-space model with theoretical and empirical results quantifying the effects of grazing and fire on soil carbon to predict that this cascade may have led to important shifts in the size of pools of C stored in soil and biomass. Our results suggest that the dynamics of herbivores and fire are tightly coupled at landscape scales, that fire exerts clear top-down effects on tree density, and that disease outbreaks in dominant herbivores can lead to complex trophic cascades in savanna ecosystems. We propose that the long-term status of the Serengeti and other intensely grazed savannas as sources or sinks for C may be fundamentally linked to the control of disease outbreaks and poaching.},
	keywords = {climate-change, co2, fire, grazing, vegetation},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.1000210},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000210},
	author = {Holdo, Ricardo M. and Sinclair, Anthony R. E. and Dobson, Andrew P. and Metzger, Kristine L. and Bolker, Benjamin M. and Ritchie, Mark E. and Holt, Robert D.}
}
@article {LeQuere2009Trends,
	title = {Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide},
	journal = {Nature Geosci},
	volume = {2},
	number = {12},
	year = {2009},
	month = {November},
	pages = {831{\textendash}836},
	publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
	abstract = {Efforts to control climate change require the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This can only be achieved through a drastic reduction of global CO2 emissions. Yet fossil fuel emissions increased by 29\% between 2000 and 2008, in conjunction with increased contributions from emerging economies, from the production and international trade of goods and services, and from the use of coal as a fuel source. In contrast, emissions from land-use changes were nearly constant. Between 1959 and 2008, 43\% of each year{\textquoteright}s CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere on average; the rest was absorbed by carbon sinks on land and in the oceans. In the past 50 years, the fraction of CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere each year has likely increased, from about 40\% to 45\%, and models suggest that this trend was caused by a decrease in the uptake of CO2 by the carbon sinks in response to climate change and variability. Changes in the CO2 sinks are highly uncertain, but they could have a significant influence on future atmospheric CO2 levels. It is therefore crucial to reduce the uncertainties.},
	keywords = {climate, climate-change, co2},
	issn = {1752-0894},
	doi = {10.1038/ngeo689},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo689},
	author = {Le Quere, Corinne and Raupach, Michael R. and Canadell, Josep G. and Marland, Gregg}
}
@article {Wiens2009Niches,
	title = {Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	volume = {106},
	number = {Supplement 2},
	year = {2009},
	month = {November},
	pages = {19729{\textendash}19736},
	abstract = {10.1073/pnas.0901639106 As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some {\textquotedblright} hotspots{\textquotedblright} of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option.},
	keywords = {biodiversity, climate, climate-change, conservation, models, sdms},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.0901639106},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901639106},
	author = {Wiens, John A. and Stralberg, Diana and Jongsomjit, Dennis and Howell, Christine A. and Snyder, Mark A.}
}
@article {LaSorte2010Avian,
	title = {Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections},
	journal = {J Exp Biol},
	volume = {213},
	number = {6},
	year = {2010},
	month = {March},
	pages = {862{\textendash}869},
	abstract = {Birds are responding to recent climate change in a variety of ways including shifting their geographic ranges to cooler climates. There is evidence that northern-temperate birds have shifted their breeding and non-breeding ranges to higher latitudes, and tropical birds have shifted their breeding ranges to higher altitudes. There is further evidence these shifts have affected migration strategies and the composition and structure of communities. Projections based on correlative distributional models suggest many birds will experience substantial pressures under climate change, resulting in range contraction and shifts. Inherent limitations of correlative models, however, make it difficult to develop reliable projections and detailed inference. Incorporating a mechanistic perspective into species distribution models enriches the quality of model inferences but also severely narrows the taxonomic and geographic relevance. Mechanistic distributional models have seen increased applications, but so far primarily in ectotherms. We argue that further development of similar models in birds would complement existing empirical knowledge and theoretical projections. The considerable data already available on birds offer an exciting basis. In particular, information compiled on flight performance and thermal associations across life history stages could be linked to distributional limits and dispersal abilities, which could be used to develop more robust and detailed projections. Yet, only a broadening of taxonomic scale, specifically to appropriately represented tropical diversity, will allow for truly general inference and require the continued use of correlative approaches that may take on increasingly mechanistic components. The trade-off between detail and scale is likely to characterize the future of global change biodiversity research, and birds may be an excellent group to improve, integrate and geographically extend current approaches. 10.1242/jeb.038356},
	keywords = {birds, climate-change, migration, migratory-birds},
	doi = {10.1242/jeb.038356},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1242/jeb.038356},
	author = {La Sorte, F. A. and Jetz, W.}
}
